The NFIB Says Confidence Is Fading

In the past, the White House has pointed to the organization’s small business data as an indication of economic strength.

Good Morning!

Here are today’s highlights:

• Gene Marks writes that Big Tech is introducing AI tools designed to help small businesses eliminate employees.

• Mars Chapman asks on the 21 Hats Sounding Board how business owners decide whether to invest in their business or in a retirement account.

• One of the biggest victims of the latest tariff escalations will be America’s most popular vehicle.

• The E.U. is retaliating by taking aim at products made in red districts.

MANAGEMENT

The NFIB’s measure of small business uncertainty has surged: “The National Federation of Independent Business’ Uncertainty Index climbed in February to its second-highest reading on record, going back to 1973, according to the group’s latest survey released Tuesday. In February, the share of respondents who believe it is a good time to expand saw its biggest monthly decline since April 2020. ‘Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street, and for many reasons,’ Bill Dunkelberg, the NFIB’s chief economist, said in a release. ‘Confidence that the economy will continue to grow is fading.’”

• “President Donald Trump’s whipsawing trade policy has unsettled America’s decision makers and ignited fears of inflation picking back up. Recession fears are also taking hold, and on Sunday, Trump refused to rule out an economic downturn this year, which sent major stock indexes reeling.”

• “The White House has frequently pointed to NFIB data as an indication of economic strength – a November survey following Trump’s election showed small business optimism rose by the most in any month in history. But since then, optimism has fallen.” READ MORE