The Ozempic Revolution Is Here
Goldman Sachs thinks the new weight-loss drugs will increase GDP by several trillion dollars by 2028 with a healthier workforce, lower health-care costs, and very different consumer priorities.
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Here are today’s highlights:
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Foreign trade zones may help business owners delay or even avoid some tariffs.
President Trump, meanwhile, is proposing yet another way to attack trade with China.
Based on claims of “anti-straight” bias, a Supreme Court case could unleash a wave of reverse-discrimination lawsuits.
OPPORTUNITIES
The economic impact of the new weight-loss drugs continues to grow: “There’s evidence that the demographic of people on the drugs overlaps with those who like to spend, a group some analysts have dubbed ‘over-consumers.’ Cutting their daily calorie counts in half — or more — is resulting in all sorts of interesting consequences still coming to light. Ozempic, and its GLP-1 cousins Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Zepbound, may not be the lightbulb, jet airplane, or internet, but their impact is expected to be so significant that Jan Hatzius, chief economist at Goldman Sachs, predicts that if 60 million people take the medications by 2028, GDP would be boosted by 1 percent — or several trillion dollars. Hatzius’s analysis was based primarily on the idea that healthier people mean a healthier workforce and, in turn, lower health-care costs. But there’s a lot more to it.”
“Companies are already reporting tremors and adjusting their product lines and marketing to match. Walmart’s CEO has talked about seeing a ‘slight pullback in the overall basket’ for food purchases among some shoppers. Rent the Runway, a high-end online clothing rental shop, has reported that customers are choosing smaller sizes and in more body-hugging styles.”
“A study by Cornell University and Numerator shows that GLP-1 users are spending less at coffee shops and fast-food chains. PricewaterhouseCoopers sees upsides in fitness in this group — 35 percent of weight-loss drug users PwC surveyed said they are exercising for the first time or more than before, and 16 percent hired a personal trainer for the first time or are having those sessions more often than before. There’s ‘major opportunity’ in supporting GLP-1 users ‘through this transformational period and capture the value from enabling their new behaviors,’ the authors wrote.”
“An analysis by research firm Grocery Doppio shows plenty of ups as well as downs in online food spending nationally, with sales of lean meats increasing 27 percent in the first half of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023, while sales of whole fruits and vegetables were up 13 percent. Sales of snacks and confectionery purchases, which include chocolate, candy, and sugar-coated treats, were down 52 percent, while prepared baked good sales tumbled 47 percent.” READ MORE
