‘There Will Be Blood’

Here’s how tariffs are hitting a candy shop, an exporter of frozen fries, and the state of Michigan. Meanwhile, JPMorgan raises the probability of a global recession to 60 percent.

Good Morning!

Here are today’s highlights:

• As small businesses fight to survive, John Arensmeyer encourages them to let their voices be heard.

• Sourcemap, which tracks supply chains, says Snickers bars include chocolate from Guyana and sugar from Brazil and are wrapped in packaging from Canada.

• Young people are becoming increasingly interested in buying traditional small businesses.

THE ECONOMY

The economy had been chugging along: “The stock market went off a cliff last week after President Trump announced the highest tariffs in more than a century, vaporizing more than $6 trillion of wealth in two days. Whether the real economy will follow is impossible to know. But the risks are tilting in that direction. The available evidence suggests U.S. economic fundamentals remained strong through March. Job growth accelerated, with non-farm payrolls rising 228,000, unemployment low at 4.2 percent, wages rising at a healthy clip and layoffs rare. But the world changed Wednesday, which Trump dubbed Liberation Day.”

• “In a note titled ‘There Will Be Blood,’ JPMorgan’s head of economic research, Bruce Kasman, raised the probability of a global recession to 60 percent from 40 percent. The bank expects U.S. gross domestic product to contract 0.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 from a year earlier; it previously expected 1.3 percent growth. Unemployment will reach 5.3 percent next year, JPMorgan says.”

• “There is also less prospect of relief from policymakers than during previous economic shocks. When the coronavirus pandemic forced much of the economy to shut down in early 2020, Congress authorized trillions of dollars in relief and stimulus, while the Fed slashed interest rates and backstopped lending.”

• “These days, however, Elon Musk’sDepartment of Government Efficiency is slashing federal payrolls and suspending contracts. Congressional Republicans are struggling to reconcile their goals of cutting taxes while narrowing the budget deficit. A significant deficit reduction could mean an additional drag on the economy.” READ MORE